Democrat commentators agree that the picture looks grim for Democrats. Obama’s former press secretary Robert Gibbs said the Senate is “definitely” in danger of being lost for the Democrats.
MSNBC’s Chris Matthews flatly predicts a Democrat Senate loss.
Republicans Have History on Their Side
The party of the sitting president lost Senate seats in every second term congressional midterm election since 1938, with the exception of 1998.
Republicans gained six Senate seats in the 2010 midterms, and lost none of their own seats, when Obama had a higher approval rating than he does now.
That was the largest Republican Senate gain since 1994. Even worse for the Democrats, in the 2014 midterms, they have to defend 21 Senate seats, while the Republicans only have to defend 13.
Alex Sink’s Defeat
That the handwriting is on the wall for Democrats in 2014 has been signaled by the recent defeat of Democrat Alex Sink, a former state official well-known in Florida, in her Florida 13th congressional district race against Republican David Jolly.
The win occurred in spite of the fact that Sink was far more well-financed than Jolly. She received $4 million in out-of-state campaign contributions. Jolly campaigned hard on the Obamacare disaster.
Besides giving other Republican office-seekers their campaign marching orders to tie their opponents to Obama and Obamacare, this election result bodes ill for all Democrats, who will have to play defense on the Obamacare issue.
Cook Partisan Voting Index
The Cook Partisan Voting Index, which gives the Republican or Democrat “lean” in states, gives a 10% or greater Republican “lean” in the Democrat-held Senate seats of Democrats Pryor (AR), Begich (AK), and Landrieu (LA), plus Republican “leans” in what will be open seats in West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana.
In Arkansas, Pryor is in a dead heat with Republican Tom Cotton. Obama lost big in Arkansas in 2012; 65% of voters in that state currently say they have an unfavorable opinion of Obama. Begich of Alaska is in big trouble. He is in a state which Obama also lost in 2012.
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana trails Republican Bill Cassidy 46% to 42% among likely voters. Americans for Prosperity, smelling blood, has spent $3 million on Bill Cassidy’s campaign.
Failures of Obamacare
The issue of the coming electoral season is without a doubt the failures of Obamacare. The polls show that Americans are not in a good mood about it. The latest Gallup polls show a 52 to 41 disapproval of Obama’s performance in office, almost the same as the 51 to 41 disapproval of Obamacare.
Everyone now knows that Obama’s promises about Obamacare — that it would save you money, that you could keep your insurance, and that you could keep your doctor — are false.
Republican Success Predicted in 2014 Midterms
This fall the congressional Democrats will pay the price for Obama’s failed policies. The present party break-down of the Senate is 53 Democrats, two “Independents” who vote with the Democrats, and 45 Republicans.
Therefore, the Republicans need to pick up six seats to win back the Senate in the 2014 midterm elections. The outlook is good for that happening.