The 2014 midterm elections are just months away, and one of the biggest things people are looking at is who will take over the Senate. Currently, the Senate is predominately Democrat, but the idea that the GOP could take over the Senate is something that makes many Republicans giddy. The good news is that this may be a victory that is easily won.
What Do the Numbers Say?
There are analysts who look at the numbers and statistics of many different aspects of our government. This helps them to figure out the probability of different situations. In this case, analysts believe there is little to no chance of the power dynamic in the House changing during the midterm elections. Yet, the same cannot be said for the Senate. According to the Washington Post, the chance of the power going to Republicans after this election will be at least 44%.
The Validity of the Numbers
The model used to come up with this number was created by three political scientists that looks at all the Senate elections that have occurred between 1952 and 2012. The numbers that are derived using this model by the Washington Post are very similar to the numbers created by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. They get to these numbers by looking at the way certain states tend to vote in different situations. By looking at 60 years of voter data, it is easier to see patterns and project what an outcome will be.
How This is Going to Happen
Once you know the numbers, it is helpful to understand the way in which these numbers are calculated. The first thing you should know is that in order for the Democrats to keep control of the Senate, they will need to win minimum 16 of the 36 elections in November. Some people may look at this and think that 16 is not even a half of the elections, but the truth is that there are other considerations that could make this harder for Democrats to win.
One of the circumstances that has helped Republicans is the Florida special election. After GOP congressman Bill Young died, there was a special election between Republican David Jolly and Democrat Alex Sink. Libertarian Overby is not worth mentioning since he earned so very few votes.
Democrats had been saying for years that they would take the seat when Bill Young passed away, but in the end David Jolly won. While there was less than a 2% difference between Jolly and Sink, it is believed that Sink spent well more than $1 million more on her campaign, and that Jolly did not give his campaign a full effort. It is cases such as the election that has Republicans excited for November.
Another issue that will be hurting every Democratic candidate this November is Obamacare. Many people are finding that their premiums have gone up significantly, and for some it is more than they can afford. With the deadline for the health care marketplace having already passed, people have gotten the chance to see just what this will cost.
While there is no way to know exactly what will happen in November, according to the numbers there is a good chance that the GOP will gain control of the Senate once again. This will give Republicans the chance to make the right changes for this country, and get us back on track to where we should be.