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It is the Monday before Super Tuesday and it really feels like the calm before the storm.
Gusts of wind disturb blades of grass here and there, the sun gives way to clouds and you can almost feel the imminent chaos tingling on the surface of your skin.
And even though the weekend was plenty eventful with a number of traitor Republican senators calling for not voting for the Republican candidate if it turns out to be Donald Trump, today feels calm. It feels particularly calm among the people who would actually like to see Trump named the GOP candidate because they can expect a great Super Tuesday.
Before we get to why this is the case, we should probably say a thing or two about tomorrow’s Super Tuesday and what it means for the GOP presidential candidate race. Super Tuesday is a, well, Tuesday which usually falls sometime in February of March during the presidential primary season when a great number of states hold their primary elections.
It should be pointed out that these states are not always the same and that their number is not the same each year. Due to this large number of states and their relative diversity region-wise, Super Tuesday is considered to be the first real test of the candidates’ electability. What’s more, it is also the day when the largest number of delegates can be won.
This year’s Super Tuesday will feature Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming for the Republican Party. The total number of delegates to be won tomorrow is 661. The largest number, as you would expect, will come from Texas, with 155 delegates. Considering a candidate needs 1,237 to win the nomination, this is a crucial number of delegates, no matter how you cut it.
To put things in perspective even more clearly, at the moment, Donald Trump has 82 delegates, Ted Cruz has 17 and Marco Rubio has 16. We are talking about a day that is going to change the race. Or at least give it a much clearer direction.
In Alaska (28 delegates), the only comprehensive Republican voter poll was done back in January, when Trump was not even as strong as he is these days and he still won near to 30 percent, with Cruz in second with just under 20.
The only recent Arkansas (40 delegates) poll put Cruz in the lead with 27 percent of votes, while Trump and Rubio shared second spot with around 23 percent. Both Rubio and Trump made some moves in Arkansas recently, though and this could easily change.
In Georgia (76 delegates), Trump is expected to win 30 percent of votes, with Cruz and Rubio both hovering at around 23 percent.
As far as Massachusetts (42 delegates) is concerned, Trump should steamroll over his opponents, with polls suggesting he might win twice the portion of votes as Rubio and Kasich, with Cruz trailing even more.
Minnesota (38 delegates) is a mystery, with the latest poll indicating that Cruz and Rubio should win around the same percentage of the votes, with Trump trailing behind, but not by much.
Oklahoma (43 delegates) is traditionally considered to be one of the most conservative states in the country and everyone will want to win it. According to the latest poll, Trump should win about 30 percent and Rubio about 20 percent of the Republican votes.
In Tennessee (58 delegates), Trump is expect to fare even better, bagging 40 percent, while Cruz and Rubio would once again earn around 20 percent.
Texas (155 delegates), always a crucial state “should” go to Cruz. In fact, he HAS to win it and he HAS to win it BIG. It is his home state and if he does not win it with a big margin and actually does not come out of Super Tuesday with a delegate lead, his campaign might be in quite a bit of bother considering it were the Southern States that were supposed to stand behind him. Fortunately for him, the latest polls put him at around 40 percent, with Trump at around 25 and Rubio at around 15.
Vermont (16 delegates) is not exactly the Prize of Super Tuesday, but it should say something about which candidate more liberal Republicans like. The only recent poll shows Trump being dominant with 32 percent, Rubio in second with 17 and Kasich and Rubio with 10 percent each.
In Virginia (40 delegates), the fact that delegate threshold is not a thing (meaning that the weaker candidates get delegates too) should complicated things. Still, Trump should come out on top according to recent polls , with 37 percent of votes to Rubio’s 22 and Cruz’s 17.
Wyoming (29 delegates) never provides any drama for the simple reason that their delegates are unbound, meaning that come July GOP convention, they will be able to vote as they see fit.
All in all, things will get really heated tomorrow and it is hard to say who is going to come out on top. Trump is expected to win majority of states, but the sheer number of Texan delegates might skew the Super Tuesday in his direction. One thing is for sure, we will know much more about the nomination race Tuesday night/Wednesday.